Football : England : Premier League
Saturday 31st August - Kickoff 12:45pm
Manchester City
Manchester City were brought down to earth last weekend as they were humbled 3-2 at newly promoted Cardiff. The defeat is a real kick in the teeth for Pellegrini given he spent close to £60m on transfers this summer.
Fortunately City return to the Etihad Stadium on Saturday where they dominate most sides. In their opening game here Pellegrini's side beat Newcastle 4-0 but the visitors were reduced to 10 men in the first half. Going back into last season Manchester City have won 11 of their last 13 league games but Norwich (2-3) shocked them at the end of the season so they can't take Hull lightly.
This side is a more attacking one than under Mancini and so far in 2 games they lead the possession stats averaging 67%. Another impressive statistic is that they are conceding just 8 shots a game against which is the second best in the league. They have suffered I think due to the loss of Kompany and at Cardiff they made a lot of mistakes defensively.
Hull City
Hull City must be congratulated for last week's win over Norwich, their first of the season and they were the first promoted side to win this season. On Saturday they make probably the hardest away trip of the season to the Etihad but with confidence high they have nothing to lose.
Bruce's side lost 2-0 at Chelsea on opening weekend but didn't disgrace themselves. It could be argued Chelsea sat back after a 2 goal lead but still they didn't collapse when others before them have. As mentioned above they then won against Norwich (1-0) despite getting a player sent off so there is a grit about this side.
Unfortunately the stats don't look great for Hull. The average of 7 shots per game is the league's worst whilst they give up 18 shots a game (3rd worst). We know City will have all the ball and I wonder if after 70 odd minutes of chasing whether this side will start to really fall away and concede some late goals.
Betting Verdict
Manchester City are in my opinion the best "home side" in the league, their record of 2 defeats in 38 league games is a frightening figure. This team is built to score goals with City netting 2 or more in 8 of their last 10 here.
Although we saw them defend poorly last week, at home City have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 7 home league games. Kompany is still out but Nastasic should return to partner Lescott and as a result City should be much stronger at the back.
I'm going to back Manchester City to win this game to nil. It sounds a little risky given the way Zabaleta and Hart specifically played last week but if they keep the ball as they usually do at home Hull shouldn't get a sniff at their goal.
We know the home stats are extraordinary and whilst the -2AH line was tempting I can see a 2-0 or 3-0 result here. Of which when weighing up the 2 bets I will stick with the clean sheet win as Manchester City return to winning ways in comfortable fashion.
Good Luck
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